The IEA "Net Zero by 2050" Report
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The IAE roadmap for acheiving net-zero emissions globally by 2050 includes massive spending on renewable energy, dramatic curtailing of fossil fuel use, and controversial "behavioral changes" to nudge human beings into less carbon-intensive lifestyles.
The IAE models several cases. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) case includes only firm policies announced or implemented by countries. The Announced Pledges Case (APC) assumes all announced net-zero targets by countries will be fully met on time.
The Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) is the IAE's proposed pathway to actually achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 (a 50% chance of success). This breakdown will mainly focus on this scenario.
40% of companies that have announced net-zero pledges have no plan to achieve them
Going "net-zero" by 2050 would only give a 50% chance of avoiding a 1.5 degree C temperature increase
This scenario would also require more drastic emission reduction pledges from all governments
Universal access to "sustainable" energy by 2030 with a 7% drop in total energy supply
While the global economy doubles by 2050 and the population increases by 2 billion
No new fossil fuel exploration, no new coal mines
Oil prices are expected to drop to $35 per barrel by 2030, and $25 per barrel in 2050.
Government restrictions on fossil fuel usage to blunt increased demand in response to low prices
Government regulations to eliminate sales of internal combustion engine vehicles
Global Carbon taxes, with lower rates for China and Russia
2030-2050 emissions reductions modeled on unproven technology
Carbon footprint of people in advanced economies drops to levels of people in developing nations by 2030
90% of electricity generated by renewables by 2050
Eliminating new internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035
"Behavioral changes" to drive down emissions
People will have their behavior modified by "government interventions" in three ways:
- Reducing excessive or wasteful energy use: instituting global maximum speed limit, maximum thermostat settings, appliance standards
- Transport mode switching: restricting air travel, shifting to high speed rail, restricting car use in cities in favor of buses and bicycles
- Materials efficiency gains: recycling mandates, green building standards
Global maximum speed limit would be 100 km/hour (62 mi/hour)
No cooling thermostat setting below 75 degrees F, no heating thermostat setting above 68 degrees F
Congestion pricing and targeted taxes for non-green vehicles
Distance-based insurance and registration fees
Mandatory requirements for companies to disclose their carbon emissions
Share of electric cars in stock increases from 1% in 2020, to 20% in 2030, to 86% in 2050
54% of all motorcycles sold are electric by 2030, 100% by 2050
420 million additional heat pumps installed by 2030 (167,330 per working day), 1.8 billion installed by 2050
60% electricity from renewables by 2030, 90% by 2050
54% of all motorcycles sold are electric by 2030, 100% by 2050
420 million additional heat pumps installed by 2030 (167,330 per working day), 1.8 billion installed by 2050
Massive increase in hydrogen and hydrogen based-fuels
Elimination of biomass for cooking currently used by 2.34 billion people by 2030
Massive increase in Carbon Capture
From 40 Mt captured in 2020 to 1,670 Mt in 2030, to 7,600 Mt in 2050
Massive increase in annual investment in energy
From $2.3 trillion/year globally in 2020, to $5 trillion/year in 2030
Massive increases in funding for EV batteries, industry electrification, and hydrogen
Annual hydrogen investment reaches $165 billion by 2030, and over 470 billion by 2050
Annual carbon capture investment reaches $160 billion by 2050
Reduction of demand for meat consumption to minimize livestock emissions
All lightbulbs sold are LEDs by 2025, mandated smart appliances
New taxes to offset lost tax revenue from fossil fuels
Carbon taxes, road fees and congestion charges, and increasing taxes on electricity
5 million eliminated oil and gas jobs
Over 4 million acres of new solar panels by 2030
Roughly the size of New Jersey
Additional 75 million rooftop solar installations by 2030, 215 million by 2050
Almost 30,000 installations per working day
Ten heavy industrial equipped with Carbon Capture every month (more than 2 a week)
Most new clean tech functional by 2035
50% of heavy truck sales are electric by 2035
39 million public EV charging points installed by 2030
Almost 120,000 per working day